5G in Sri Lanka: Is 2025 the year?

Following years of delays, 5G might see an official launch in Sri Lanka. According to Deputy Minister of Technology Eranga Weeraratne, Sri Lanka is on track to unveil 5G services islandwide at the end of the year.

Speaking at a press conference, the deputy minister stated that the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission of Sri Lanka (TRCSL) is prepping for the tender, set to be 51 days after the final discussion with the stakeholders. This discussion is believed to be held within the next few weeks.

5G, a promise unrealized

The promise of 5G has been in the making for many years. Ericsson reports that over 5G subscriptions reached 2.4 billion by 2024, with a projection of 2.9 billion connections at the end of this year. Within the South Asian region, India has shown the most notable adoption trend as 5G penetration crossed 130 million subscribers by the end of 2023. The country expects to hit 970 million by 2030, according to Ericsson. Incidentally, 5G in Sri Lanka has yet to kick off commercially, despite claiming to be the first country to trial 5G in South Asia. While efforts are seemingly ongoing to expedite deployment, the situation still appears to be murky at best.

As of now, TRCSL plans to auction spectrums in the 3.5 GHz and 27 GHz bands for 10-year periods. This includes four 50MHz frequencies in the 3.5GHz band and four 100MHz frequencies in the 27GHz band. These plans are a part of the regulator’s framework in an amended consultation paper from early 2024.

The updated allotment comes amid the approved acquisition of Airtel Sri Lanka by Dialog Axiata in 2023. This meant that Dialog would hold a 63% market share of mobile subscriptions. As a result, the restructured market redistributed spectrums in the 850, 900, and 2300 MHz bands among telco operators, with the remaining spectrum in the 2.6GHz band assigned to Hutchison Telecommunications Lanka (Hutch Sri Lanka).

The long-awaited auction

While it remains to be seen when it will take place, the upcoming 5G auction is likely to be one of the three, as per TRCSL:

• An auction open to all qualified bidders
• An administrative assignment to a single wholesale network
• An auction for existing operators with attached sharing obligations

Additionally, the regulator plans to attach certain rollout obligations for the licenses, where operators will be required to launch 5G at a minimum number of base stations in each district within the first three years. The idea is to ensure access to 5G across the country.

Previously, the 5G spectrum auction was scheduled for early 2022, but it was pushed to 2023 until plans eventually fell apart. Part of this lies with the economic crisis that hit Sri Lanka three years ago, preceded by the effects of COVID-19, which exposed a lot of the industry’s shortcomings in internet access and affordability. But even with the infrastructure investments in recent years, telcos questioned the feasibility of launching 5G in Sri Lanka, particularly on the massive investments needed and the ROI of it all.

What about the spectrum?

In any case, auctioning is only part of the process. 5G’s longevity and accessibility depend on the extent of frequency allocation for the technology. Over the past few years, telco operators have been shutting down 3G networks and pushing customers to 4G. In addition to the current allocations in the 3.5GHz and 27GHz bands, TRCSL’s spectrum roadmap plans for 2024 – 2029 indicate that the 1800MHz and 2100MHz bands may be rearranged for spectrum efficiency. However, it’s unclear what this will look like post-Airtel acquisition.

The TRCSL roadmap plan also specifies the 700MHz band for better 4G and 5G coverage. However, this is currently used for broadcasting and will only be available once the analog operators update to digital broadcasting. The digital TV project has been in the works for over a decade. The original plan was to shut down analog by 2017 and complete the move to digital broadcasting by this year.

According to Minister Weeraratne, the government will engage in discussions with the Japanese government to move forward with the digital broadcasting push. A Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) was previously in the works for the digital TV project. TRCSL’s roadmap suggests that the implementation of digital TV broadcasting and the analog switch-off could likely go beyond 2028.

5G in Sri Lanka and ambitions

Sri Lanka has a habit of tracking poorly when it comes to upgrading its digital infrastructure. Despite the conversation around digitalization and plans of ambitious projects like an LKR 100 million fund for AI, crucial technology projects are often stalled or move sluggishly. Be it data privacy, number portability, or digital TV, there’s little to be said about following through on years of digital promises.

The promise of 5G is no different. Its numerous opportunities have been talked to no end, but actual implementation has yet to see the light. Whether 2025 will finally be the year 5G kicks off on the island, only time will tell.